Running out of oil or not?


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Posted by David Sherman on Wednesday, March 15, 2006 at 12:05PM :

In Reply to: Not really... posted by MoparNorm on Wednesday, March 15, 2006 at 9:26AM :

A lot of competent geologists say we're near peak production right now. Others say production won't peak till 2030 or so. The fact is that not only can nobody see underground, but most of the world's known oil reserves are in secretive countries that have good reason to overstate how much oil they still have left. Unless you subscribe to the really wild notion that crude oil slowly percolates up from deep in the earth and refills the oil fields, oil is just another exhaustible natural resource that eventually gets scarce and expensive as we use it up. It's no different than mining metals or fishing out the cod or logging off the old-growth timber. Sure there will always be a little gold left in the ground and a few cod in the ocean and a few big trees in the woods, but not enough for any serious economic use, regardless of whether enviromentalists try to preserve whatever's left or not.

Same with oil. At some point it will be too hard to get and will be too expensive to burn for fuel. I don't know when that will happen. Maybe in my lifetime or maybe not. Personally I think we'll find out within 5 years whether there's lots of oil left or not. Today's high prices should stimulate a the biggest oil exploration boom ever. Lots of geologists are out looking for oil right now and they have lots of money and new high-tech equipment to look for it with. If they find some more new giant oil fields, we may get another round of cheap gas for a while. But if they spend all that money looking and don't scare up any more oil, it might be time to start learning mule-skinning, bull-whacking, and harness and saddle making.

Even without petroleum, we can still make gasoline and diesel from coal, like the Germans did during WWII, so it's not like there would be no liquid fuels. It's just that they'd be so expensive that the idea of going for a drive in the hills just for fun would be like flying to Paris for dinner is today.

Okay, I'm off my soapbox too. Whatever happens will happen regardless of my opinion of it.



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